Finch Returns to Dish on NBA Prospects
by Seth Davis
Will Lonzo Ball’s father hurt his draft stock? Is Harry Giles worth the risk? Here’s what NBA scouts really think about this year’s players.
Good news, Hoopheads. Finch is in the House.
Not just any house, mind you. He is in Seth’s Draft House on Medium. Over the next two weeks, this site will serve as a hub for first-rate content designed to prepare you for the 2017 NBA Draft. Our plan is to roll out new articles every day between now and June 22nd. There’s no one we would rather hear from off the bat than Finch. Unlike you and me, he is always preparing for the draft. He don’t need no stinkin’ websites.
Finch, as many of you know, is an amalgam of five NBA scouts whom I interviewed in recent days. Just as I have over the last several years, I asked these scouts to give me their unvarmnished opinions of 50 draftable players. In return, I granted them total anonymity and melded their comments into a single character whom I call Finch. I took the name from my erstwhile Sports Illustrated colleague Alex Wolff, who applied it to an anonymous NBA scout for a profile in the magazine many years ago. Alex, being of the highbrow, literary type, chose the name Finch because that was the character Scout’s surname in To Kill A Mockingbird. Brilliant, no?
I found Finch to be in a good but measured mood. He loves his job and loves the grind, but while this is a deep draft, there is a dearth of impact players available at the top. I’m not sure Finch believes there are more than one or two All-Stars on the board, but there are plenty of guys who can help their teams win. I also sensed a hint of despair at the heavy guesswork involved in this exercise, given that most of these players are so young and therefore have not given Finch much evidence upon which to base his opinions.
Still, Finch is nothing if not opinionated. So as we begin our fortnight of fun and officially open our doors to Seth’s Draft House, allow Finch to welcome you inside with his opinions about…..
Bam Adebayo, 6’10” freshman forward, Kentucky
“I like his power and athleticism. I don’t know if he has the skill set to be a four, but he’ll be great at defending the pick-and-roll. No reason he shouldn’t be a 12-year pro. In college he dunked every time, but that’s not feasible in the NBA. I was impressed with his free throw stroke. He has good hands and the makings of a really good right hand jump hook. He could be a more skilled Tristan Thompson.”
Jarrett Allen, 6’10” freshman forward, Texas
“Great athlete, great size. Definitely needs to build strength. There’s some concern about how badly he wants to be a basketball player. Sometimes he looks a little too relaxed on the court. He just seems aloof. I’m afraid he’s going to show up one day and say he’s going to work on computers the rest of his life. Then again, I watched him get his ass kicked by Johnathan Motley, but the next game he played great. So that’s a good sign.”
Ike Anigbogu, 6’10” freshman center, UCLA
“Great frame, great size, but very raw as far as his post play and footwork. He’s nowhere near ready to compete on an NBA floor. He’s only 18. He has a chance to be a DeAndre Jordan type. He’s so new to the game, he doesn’t understand a lot of the nuances, but he’s very powerful and can block shots. He had a meniscus tear and some knee issues so he’s not working out for anybody. I thought he was one of the best interviews we did in Chicago. Soft spoken, smart kid.”
O.G. Anunoby, 6’7” sophomore forward, Indiana
“Not a huge fan, period. Obviously the injury is the biggest negative thing, but everybody thinks he’s going to be this big wing. He’s not going to be a three man, he’s a four man. I don’t think he has a great feel. The whole question will be can he make enough perimeter shots. He’s had some brilliant stretches on defense where he can defend multiple positions. He’s a bright kid, but a little quiet.”
Dwayne Bacon, 6’6” sophomore guard, Florida State
“There’s some question about his ability to defend. He’s a good shooter, but you want some more consistency there. Excellent midrange game, but not elusive off the dribble. Plays bully ball. He’s a big wing. Not a great ballhandler, not a great passer. He raised his percentage as a sophomore, but can he make those shots in our league? He doesn’t defend at a high level. It’s more of a mindset than anything. His body language and his motor are not good at times.”
Lonzo Ball, 6’6” freshman guard, UCLA
“I couldn’t care less about the dad. This isn’t Little League. Everybody loves playing with players who get them the ball where they like it and control the pace of the game. He’s stronger than people give him credit for. I’m not really sure how he’s going to get a pullup jumper off the dribble. The only way he can get that jumper off is with a stepback. Obviously, he’s a really good passer. What makes him so good is his mind. If he’s the best player on your team, you’re in trouble, but if he’s the second or third best, you can win big with him. He’s going to have a hard time guarding point guards, but his defensive instincts off the ball are unbelievable.”
Jordan Bell, 6’8” junior forward, Oregon
“He’s one of my favorite players in the draft. He could be a switch monster because of his ability to defend multiple positions. He’s probably a better shooter than we saw at Oregon. He’s a hot name. He’s undersized four, but he’s just such a ridiculous athlete.”
Chris Boucher, 6’10” senior forward, Oregon
“He’s just too thin. I’m not sure he has good enough of an NBA range as a three-point shooter. People talk about him as a three-point shooter, but he shot like 34. 35 percent. I just think in our league the powerful players will overwhelm him. I don’t think he’ll end up being an NBA player. He’s 24 years old. I think guys will look at that and say there’s not much growth left. He’s not a great worker when it comes to strength and conditioning, which is scary with his body type.”
Tony Bradley, 6’10” freshman center, North Carolina
“Should have gone back to North Carolina. He’s very young, emotionally and as a player. A good kid but I don’t think he understands what it’s all about right now. I love his length. I think he’s a little more skilled offensively than you realize. Not quite athletic enough to be a four, little too small to be a five. He doesn’t have any bounce or explosion around the rim. He could struggle in pick-and-roll coverage because he’s a little heavy-footed. If you’re taking him end of the first round, and he becomes your backup center, then he’s a good pick.”
Isaiah Briscoe, 6’3” sophomore guard, Kentucky
“The dude can pass. He’s strong and can guard multiple positions, but I think most teams are weary of him because they don’t know what his role would be offensively. He’s not a great passer but he’s adequate. I don’t think he gets drafted. He’ll get into summer league and get into a camp. It will be a significant amount of time before he can make an NBA three. I don’t think he’s a point guard. He’s what you call a rammer. Just puts his head down and rams his way to the basket. He won’t do that in the pros.”
Dillon Brooks, 6’6” junior forward, Oregon
“Great four man that can score in a variety of ways. Average or below average athlete for NBA wing, which makes you wonder if he will be able to get his shot off. In the NBA, you’ve got to make a play when the shot clock is winding down. He doesn’t have the best looking shot in the world, but he makes them. If he doesn’t play with energy all the time, he’s an average player. Against North Carolina in the Final Four, he was very flat. He’s got some P.J. Tucker in him. He’s got balls, he makes big shots.”
Thomas Bryant, 6’10” sophomore center, Indiana
“I saw him in a group workout and his body looked better. Biggest thing with him is he’s not overly athletic. But he can make shots. I’m not a huge believer. He’s going to struggle defensively. There’s some attractiveness in his standing reach and his competitiveness. I’m not sure he can rebound or defend pick and roll well enough to stay on the floor. Too perimeter oriented for a post guy. Not a great athlete, but he’s a decent north-south runner. He can be a bit emotional.”
John Collins, 6’9” freshman forward, Wake Forest
“Great finisher at the rim. Better shooter than he showed at Wake. Defensively is where he really struggles. I didn’t see a lot of effort from him on that end. But he’ll be able to score at an elite level in our league. Can be a little silly at times. Has to become more focused, more mature. He can’t dribble and he can’t pass, but you cannot leave him alone. He’s just so damn efficient. He doesn’t pass at all but he shoots 65 percent from the field. He had a hard time staying out of foul trouble.”
Zach Collins, 6’11” freshman center, Gonzaga
“It seems everyone is really high on him right now. He’s a guy with size and athleticism and he showed some rim protection. He doesn’t have ideal frame and length you’d like for a dominating big man. He’s going to have to be high level skilled. He’s probably helped by the fact that he didn’t play a ton and finished with such a flourish. Got a little nasty streak to him. He’s probably back of the lottery. He’ll be able to shoot corner threes.”
Tyler Dorsey, 6’4” sophomore guard, Oregon
“He really impressed me at the combine. He’s quicker and has better size than I thought. There’s always a place for shooters in this league. A little too small for a two guard but maybe he can move over and play the point some. He made big shots. He’s a little slight for me. I like him as an early second rounder. He’s got a nice little in between game. Professional scorer, not a point guard at all. He doesn’t rebound, doesn’t fill up a box score. Average defender. You hope he’s Eddie House. Bring him in for five minutes and let him get buckets.”
P.J. Dozier, 6’6” sophomore guard, South Carolina
“I want to like him but he’s erratic. You love his size, solid athlete, been gaining strength. Being at South Carolina has helped him improve as a defensive player. He really struggles to finish at the basket. He’s a decent athlete so that’s probably a toughness issue more than anything else. He seems to be more worried about contact than finishing the shot. I worry about him physically because the NBA is much more physical than the college game. His shot is broken. I don’t think he can make free throws.”
Markelle Fultz, 6’4” freshman point guard, Washington
“I’d take him number one. His main weakness is defense, but he has some ability to play defense when there’s something at stake. He needs to be around a winning culture to get the best out of him. The most complete player in the draft. I don’t like that he cruises sometimes. He’s almost like Daryl Strawberry. Is he loafing or is he just that smooth? I don’t know that winning has ever been important to him. I’ve talked to friends who recruited him, and they said even when they watched him in open gyms or playing AAU, his team hardly ever won. That scares the crap out of me.”
Jawun Evans, 6’0” sophomore point guard, Oklahoma State
“Love him. He’s a great scorer, great ballhandler. You wonder if he has enough real size to be a point guard in the NBA, although he measured well at the combine. I’m not sure he’s athletic enough to pull that off. Competitive, sees the whole floor. He can make every pass from everywhere on the floor. Great attitude. Early in the year, Brad Underwood was getting on his ass, and he never let it bother him. He’s not an elite athlete. He’ll get picked 45 to 60.”
Terrance Ferguson, 6’7” freshman guard
“He has potential as a three and D guy. He’ll guard more ones and twos than threes and fours. He’s really limited off the bounce. Needs to improve his skill set with the ball. But he’s athletic enough and a good enough shooter that he’ll go in the first round. He’s been known as a hard worker. I was surprised how much he talks on the floor. He has a reputation as a great shooter, but he didn’t shoot it well in Australia. You hope he’s Trevor Ariza but he might be more like Hollis Thompson.”
De’Aaron Fox, 6’3” freshman point guard, Kentucky
“My main concern is his size and strength, but I think he has a frame he can build on. His shot is not as broken as people make it out to be. You’re not talking Mudiay or Elfried Payton broke. He’s great at getting people involved. I didn’t like that he never got off the ball in transition, but that’s what Calipari wanted. He just puts so much pressure on the defense. It will be easy for him to polish that jump shot. His release point is too tight to his face, so instead of shooting it, he flings it. That’s easy to correct with repetition.”
Harry Giles, 6’10” freshman forward, Duke
“Which Harry are you getting? Are you getting pre-knee injuries or the one we saw at Duke? At the end of the day, it comes down to your medical staff. He has great size for an NBA power forward. I’d say mid to late first round. I wouldn’t touch him. He’s too big a gamble. I saw him at a workout and it looks like his legs are getting better. Until he lands on his left leg, I don’t know what to tell you. He was cleared medically at Duke. He just couldn’t get over the injuries mentally. Has there ever been a case where a guy blew out his knee twice before being drafted? Leon Powe, maybe? He would be a top five pick if he didn’t get hurt.”
Josh Hart, 6’5” senior guard, Villanova
“He’ll go in the second round and play for 12 years and help you win a s — -load of games. Just a real, smart, competitive player you’d love to have in your locker room. He’s somewhat limited because of his size and athleticism. I’m just not sure how much better he can get. Doesn’t have explosive athleticism or quickness. What does he do in the NBA to make him effective? Solid character. He’s an eagle scout. You know that, right?”
Nigel Hayes, 6’8” senior forward, Wisconsin
“I don’t think he’s an NBA player. Everyone was disappointed in the condition he reported in at the combine. You wonder if he’s focused on being a basketball player or are his outside interests more important to him. It seems like he regressed from last year. I am not a fan. He can really pass, I love that about him, high IQ. He just didn’t get any better from his sophomore year. He doesn’t hang his hat on one thing. He has below average athleticism. Who’s he gonna guard?”
Jonathan Isaac, 6’10” freshman forward, Florida State
“Great athlete. Can guard multiple positions. Needs to get stronger, but can put it on the floor and stroke it. He works really hard on defense, but offensively it doesn’t seem important to him to put points on the board. There were times his team needed him to be the guy to put points on the board, but he deferred a little too much. Late game situations, he’ll get nervous. He’ll get mauled at first because he’s so thin, so he’s going to have to be able to step out and make shots. ”
Wesley Iwundu, 6’7” senior forward, Kansas State
“Great size and length for a wing. Needs to improve his strength and ball control. He needs to tighten everything up. Nice kid, has the tools to be a good defender, but he just doesn’t do enough. He has trouble with guys who get into his body. Doesn’t play with any force. His only hope is to convert to a point guard because of his size and ballhandling.”
Frank Jackson, 6’3” freshman point guard, Duke
“Big question is his foot. He was a little too hell-bent on scoring and putting points on the board. You want to see if he can make good decisions on a consistent basis and get teammates involved. He had a great end of the year, but early on he was very up and down. Someone must have promised him he would go in the first round, but then he had this foot injury. He’s not a point guard in any way, shape or form. I don’t think he’s a great defender. He can make shots, but he’s an undersized for a combo. Should have stayed in school.”
Josh Jackson, 6’8” freshman forward, Kansas
“He’s my favorite player in this draft. As gifted a scorer as he is, I think he has a lot of untapped potential in that area. The off-court stuff is definitely a concern. You’re talking about two incidents in one year. Is that going to be a lingering issue? You don’t have to run plays for him. I think one day he could be a Jimmy Butler type guy. He has shooting deficiencies, but they went in at Kansas. I don’t know how they went in, but they did. He plays with a chip on his shoulder. If he’s able to shoot, he’ll be a Grant Hill or an Iguodala. If he doesn’t, he’ll be like Corey Brewer, which is still pretty good.”
Justin Jackson, 6’8” junior forward, North Carolina
“Love his ability to come off screens and knock down midrange shots. Great kid. The main concern is what kind of defender he’s going to be and whether he can get open looks because of his slow foot speed. Is he going to be a consistent worker? He’s got a great floater game and I thought he tried hard on defense. If that carries over, he’ll be a good piece. I wonder if he’s too nice. He’s not the toughest kid.”
Luke Kennard, 6’6” sophomore guard, Duke
“He has good vision and can shoot with range, but you’re basically looking at a one-dimensional player. He always gets stopped on the dribble two or three times, then he pivots and shoots. It’s going to be hard to do that in the NBA — dribble, dribble, stop, pivot, pivot. He’s going to be challenged athletically, but he can shoot it and he can really pass. He’s not a point guard but he can handle it. Good size for a two.”
Kyle Kuzma, 6’9” junior forward, Utah
“He seemed to float game to game throughout the season, but he surprised a lot of people with how well he shot at the combine. He has really come on. He’s intriguing because of his athletic ability for his size. He’s a little on the soft side but he still had over nine rebounds a game in the Pac 12. I think he’s worth the risk. I love his versatility. He shot barely 32 percent from three. He has to be a stretch four.”
T.J. Leaf, 6’10” freshman forward, UCLA
“Multi talented scorer. Has a great spot up shot. Can finish with both hands and is a pretty good rebounder. He’s a little bit tougher than people give him credit for. There’s some concern about how much stronger he can get with that frame, and obviously his ability to defend in pick and roll because he doesn’t move well laterally. He’s a futures bet. He couldn’t guard you. His footwork is off the charts. When he gets to his left shoulder, it’s a basket. I’d be shocked if he slipped past 20. He might get his ass kicked early on, but once he gets strong he’ll be fine.”
Tyler Lydon, 6’9” sophomore forward, Syracuse
“He’s a big-time sleeper to me. Can really shoot it. Knows how to play. His body needs work, but that shows me how much better he can get. A great shooter with elite range. He has decent bounce. Coming out of Syracuse, you’re not sure what he’s going to be able to do defensively. Hard-working kid. He had a high body fat at the combine, but when I saw him at a workout later on, his body looked better. I heard the Syracuse coaches had to tell him to shoot.”
Lauri Markkanen, 7’0” freshman center, Arizona
“Tremendous shooter. The thing that differentiates him as a stretch shooter is his ability to come off screens and hit shots. Strong for his age. A little slow-footed getting up and down the floor. Doesn’t have a huge impact defensively but he’s big and mobile enough that he won’t necessarily hurt you. I don’t see him as a guy who can carry a team, more like a complementary player along the lines of Ryan Anderson. He won all the shooting drills at Arizona from what I understand. He’s what our league is about right now. That’s why he’ll go around 7 to 11.”
Frank Mason, 6’0” senior point guard, Kansas
“I’m not in love with him, but ooh, he is tough. He’s a killer. He’s a kid everybody’s rooting for but no one is willing to commit to. Worked hard to become a reliable shooter and can shoot off the bounce. I wonder whether he can be an NBA level distributor and see the floor the way he needs to at his size. I’m not sure he’s dynamic enough to be a point guard in the NBA. I don’t like his ability to finish around the rim. He doesn’t pass off the dribble, but in transition he’s good. If Fred VanVleet can make a roster, why can’t he?”
Kennedy Meeks, 6’10” senior forward, North Carolina
“I don’t see it. I don’t think he’s athletic enough. He certainly rebounds the ball well, but I don’t think he played with enough energy. Nice college career. Pick and roll defense is a question. He had some trouble finishing around length and athleticism.”
Eric Mika, 6’10” sophomore forward, BYU
“I don’t think he’s a pro. He’s not good enough at any one thing. He’s just okay. He’s 23 years old. Hard-playing dude, he’s a grinder, I like that about him. I didn’t think he was great at the combine. He’s a little undersized to be a five but he doesn’t shoot it past 15 feet. Interior defense is a bit of a question. Probably a bubble second rounder.”
Donovan Mitchell, 6’2” sophomore guard, Louisville
“Absolutely love him. His athleticism and wing span are intriguing. He can cover a lot of the floor. If he can get a consistent jump shot I think he has the chance. High character young man, strong calves and lower body. Improving three-point shooter. I think he can be a lottery pick. Didn’t measure well height-wise, but he has a 6’10” wing span so it doesn’t matter.”
Malik Monk, 6’3” freshman guard, Kentucky
“He’s really thin. I don’t see him being a guy who can carry a team. He’s more like a first guy off the bench and a bucket getter. He’s good athletically. He needs to get stronger. I’ve heard he’s not exactly a gym rat. When he gets going, forget it. Short arms, but a big-time athlete. Really fast, can really jump. He had some 1 for 11 nights. What’s he going to do if he’s not making shots?”
Monte Morris, 6’2” senior point guard, Iowa State
“He’s thinner than you’d like. Not quite the defensive player you need for your backup point guard. I’m not quite sold on his ability to known down an NBA three consistently, but he’s a good spot-up shooter. He’s great at creating shots for others. Love his IQ. Real good passer. Just don’t think he’s athletic enough for the NBA. Really good high-paint jump shooter because that’s as far as he gets it. He can’t get to the rim. Maybe he ends up being Howard Eisley.”
Johnathan Motley, 6’9” junior forward, Baylor
“He won’t be able to beast guys like he did in college. He’s got to be a skilled midrange shooter. He’s an undervalued shooter from 12 to 15 feet. His skills are good. He’s not just a bully. He was 75, 76 percent from the free throw line, which is good. He puts the ball in the basket a lot of different ways.”
Semi Ojeleye, 6’6” junior forward, SMU
“He’s known for being a great kid. Can he stretch his three point shooting? I don’t know that defensively he will be able to stay in front of wings. Really, really high character guy. Very well-spoken young man. He’s a complete tweener. I worry about if he can switch and guard. You’d hope he could be Jae Crowder but he could end up Ben Bentil.”
Justin Patton, 6’11” freshman center, Creighton
“I love his game but he has to get stronger. There are some questions about his work ethic and his commitment to basketball. No question he has huge upside. He’s a futures bet. Runs really well, shoots pretty well. He’s not just young, he’s mentally young. You’re going to have to watch him and nurture him. He needs to be able to make shots because he’s so slight, the things he did in college will be difficult in the pros. He’s a big baby, in a good way. I thought his rebounding should have been better than it was. He’s not a great free throw shooter. He doesn’t have a strong inside game but I think with body development that will get better.”
Ivan Rabb, 6’10” sophomore forward, California
“He seemed to regress. I like that he’s ambidexterous. He really struggles to finish though contact. With his lack of strength you wonder if he will be able to rebound at the same rate in the NBA. He’s a bit of a mystery to me. Average rim protector. He’s just not explosive enough, so you have to counter that by being able to make shots, and he needs work in that area. I don’t know if he’s able to impact an NBA game right now physically. Needs to be more passionate about the game.”
Dennis Smith, 6’2” freshman point guard, N.C. State
“Really gifted at getting his shot off. Needs to improve his consistency on the jump shot. I want to see how committed he can be at the defensive end. He has all the physical tools to succeed, but can he trust his teammates? He can fall asleep on defense. He’s a Derrick Rose-type athlete. He needs to go to the right team. He’s a guy that gets you fired. He quit on his team in some of the games I was at. I’m not a fan of his body language. I’d be scared if he was staring me in the face and I felt I had to take him.”
Edmond Sumner, 6’5” sophomore point guard, Xavier
“The obvious question is his knee, but I felt like his stock was sliding a little bit even before the injury. I didn’t see a lot of growth in him. He’s got great size and he’s a good ballhandler. He doesn’t shoot well, so he’s risky. I think he got caught up in trying to be a pro. I don’t know if he’s a special athlete. He didn’t finish really well early in the year.”
Caleb Swanigan, 6’9” sophomore forward, Purdue
“You have to be impressed by how his three point shooting improved so quickly. He struggles with his lateral mobility and his lift. He’s not a rim protector. He relies on his girth and tenacity to rebound. I’m not sure he will be able to score inside in the NBA He has an unbelievable IQ. Great hands, great feel for the game. Can face up and make you have to guard him. He’s undersized and not athletic, but you can put him in a game next year and he’ll never hurt you. Who is he going to guard?”
Jayson Tatum, 6’8” freshman forward, Duke
“Love him love him love him. He’s the next Carmelo Anthony. Just an elite scorer. I wonder how he’ll be as defenders jam him up. I’m not sure he has the foot speed to get around those guys. He has a good midrange game but I’m not sold on his three-point shot. His challenges will be athletically and defensively. He would never just drive down the land and punch it on people. I hear he just loves to play, loves being in the gym. Biggest thing with him is just physical toughness.”
Sindarius Thornwell, 6’5” senior guard, South Carolina
“He’s a tough competitor. Can knock down the three point shot. I’m just not sure he has the size and athleticism to be an NBA player. I don’t know if he has the lateral quickness and elusiveness off the dribble to score in the NBA. He’s a pit bull. He was one of the best interviews we did. I could talk to that dude and have beers with him all night. He’s not an above the rim guy. I watched him at a workout, he didn’t make any shots.”
Melo Trimble, 6’3” junior point guard, Maryland
“I don’t believe in his ability to handle the ball against pressure. Inconsistent as a playmaker. He’s not a creative finisher. He likes to dive and draw fouls, but I’m not sure he gets those calls on the next level. He’s really good if you put him in ball screens, but I don’t know what else he does. Not a good finisher, okay outside shooter. He needs a pick and roll to make a play. I just don’t think he’s an NBA player.”
Nigel Williams-Goss, 6’3” junior point guard, Gonzaga
“He’s just a nice college player. He’s gonna have serious challenges in our league athletically. He’s a smart point guard and he can pass, but he can’t get by anybody. He can’t break you down and create havoc. He’s got big balls, though. He’s a winner. He’s in that 50 to 60 range, so he probably plays in the D League and maybe comes up and down. I want to like him better than I do.”
D.J. Wilson, 6’10” junior forward, Michigan
“Big-time upside. He didn’t play for two years and now he’ll probably get drafted in the first round. Just needs experience. Little bit of a four/three tweener. He did the right thing by coming out. He has the size and skill set you like, as well as the footspeed and ballhandling ability. He needs to be more aggressive and improve as a defensive player. I’d think most people would take him over Lydon.”
