It’s Kind of a Long Story
by Brandon Anderson
If you want to spot good NBA Draft prospects, focus on wingspan and reach, not height
Everyone in the NBA is a giant. Rudy Gobert is taller than anyone you know, probably by a foot. Everyone’s favorite undersized guard Steph Curry is 6'3”, which puts him in the 97th percentile of American men. Curry looks like a rag doll on TV, but he’d be a big man on your YMCA team. NBA players are all big, and height has long been key in considering prospects.
But the truth is that height is overrated. Height, after all, is a measure from the soles of your feet to the top of your head — and when’s the last time you saw someone in the NBA block the ball by headbutting it flat-footed?
Standing reach and wingspan are much more important determining factors for an NBA prospect’s success. It makes sense, right? A player’s defensive position is on the ball in a crouch, sacrificing height. That leaves him dependent on his arms to choke passing lanes down and cut off angles. A significant standing reach helps shot blocking.
When it comes to evaluating NBA draft prospects, reach and wingspan tell us a lot more about a player’s potential, especially on the defensive end. They’re the hidden numbers that can mean the difference between a hidden gem and an overrated bust.
So what can we learn from wingspan for the 2017 NBA draft class? Let’s reach for some answers.
2017 Guard Prospects
Markelle Fultz
Fultz has a big wingspan for a point guard at almost 6'10" with a big 8'5 reach. He’ll be a large point guard and has the size to play the two spot as well. That also gives him a lot of defensive potential.
Lonzo Ball and De’Aaron Fox
With wingspans of 6'7” and 6'6”, respectively, Ball and Fox fall into the “bigger” point guard range. Ball is big enough to merit talk of playing shooting guard in the future, which would mean he doesn’t always have to be the primary creator.
Dennis Smith Jr.
Smith is worryingly small. It is hard to find an example of a player with his dimensions, a 6'3” wingspan and an 8'1” reach, being good on defense. That means Smith will get targeted in pick-and-rolls. If Smith’s size makes him a defensive liability, he has to be especially valuable on offense to be a starter, let alone a star. He is reminiscent Steve Francis or Stephen Marbury — probably an NBA player, but is he a starter on a great team or even a good one?
Malik Monk
Monk’s 6’6” wingspan is small for a two guard. He should probably be guarding point guards. Monk’s athleticism should help to make up for this a bit, but he’ll need his shot and his gravity to be elite to be worthy of his likely top ten selection.
Frank Ntilikina
Ntilikina has an absurd “pterodactyl” wingspan, near seven feet. He’s also one of the youngest players in the draft, not even 19 yet, so he might still be growing. His wingspan gives him huge defensive potential if he remains a guard. Think Paul George or maybe even Scottie Pippen. It’s possible Ntilikina could grow a couple inches and morph into a stifling 3-and-D wing. His wingspan is a defining asset because he doesn’t have elite athleticism or quickness.
Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell’s 6'10" wingspan is big for a guard. Combine that with his athleticism, and it’s easy to envision him ending up in the back end of the lottery. Mitchell isn’t a defender the level of, say, Marcus Smart or Kris Dunn, but his reach could allow him to defend one to three.
Luke Kennard
Kennard is a J.J. Redick clone, with a nearly identical frame and a similarly tiny wingspan at 6'5”. That’s not good news. Redick took a long time to maximize his shooting and become usable defensively. Kennard’s low shot release could also be problematic.
Jawun Evans
Evans is very short, under six feet, and that may drop him into the second round. But his 6'5” wingspan and 7'1” reach place him about average for guards. Evans will still have to figure out how to avoid getting his own shot blocked, but he can be okay defensively.
P.J. Dozier
Dozier is a sleeper with big defensive upside. His 6'11” wingspan and 8'5” reach put him at the top end of guards. Offensively, Dozier’s shot is horribly broken. He’ll need to fix that to find any offensive role in the NBA, but defensively, he might project even better than his South Carolina teammate Sindarius Thornwell, widely regarded as one of the top defensive guards in college basketball last season.
2017 Wing Prospects
Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum
Both are normal-sized wings. Tatum is around an inch taller and longer. Neither is particularly large, and Jackson is closer to shooting guard size (and older). Jackson may be more of a two-three hybrid while Tatum is a combo forward.
Jonathan Isaac
Isaac is huge, with a 7'1 wingspan and over nine-foot reach. That makes him bigger than wings like Danny Granger and Paul George and similar in size to Kawhi Leonard and Brandon Ingram. It’s a large reason why I call him my most interesting man in this year’s draft. Isaac has the size to be a modern four or even small-ball five, but he has special potential if he remains a wing.
OG Anunoby
Anunoby’s size makes him a unique prospect. His 7'2” wingspan similar to those of Draymond Green and Paul Millsap, and his reach extends even further at almost nine feet. That’s Chris Bosh, Amare’ Stoudemire territory. Physically, Anunoby has the body of Metta World Peace. We’ll see what he amounts to on offense, but his size and athleticism make him an absolutely tantalizing defensive prospect.
Semi Ojeleye
Ojeleye is one of those guys with a strange misshapen body. He’s a bit thicker with a body reminiscent of Jae Crowder, but his 6'10” wingspan and 8'6” reach are both on the small end for a combo forward. Physically, he’s closer to a two than a four. It’s obviously worked for Crowder, though, and Ojeleye’s athleticism can help overcome his size deficiencies.
Terrance Ferguson
Ferguson is getting some hype as a mid-first 3-and-D wing but he’s on the small end with a 6'9” wingspan and 8'7” reach. You’re hoping for a Danny Green type player here, not a true wing.
2017 Big Man Prospects
Zach Collins
Collins’s 9'3” reach is great for blocking weak-side shots, but his 7'1” wingspan is lacking for a true center and might mean he fits better at the four. He could struggle in on-ball defense against some true bigs or when he gets switched in the pick-and-roll.
Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen is a 7-footer with a sweet shot but projects very poorly defensively. His “average wingspan” (the precise measure on him seems unclear) is not enough to offset his poor lateral quickness. Markkanen doesn’t have the size to guard big men and doesn’t rebound like one either. He strikes me as a shooting guard with really long legs.
Jarrett Allen and Ike Anigbogu
These two have the bodies of modern centers. Allen is plenty big himself, and Anigbogu has the frame of Hassan Whiteside or DeAndre Jordan if his body fills out. Both players project as modern fives with rim-protecting potential.
John Collins
Collins is a bit undersized. His 8'10” reach is standard for a classic power forward, but his 6'11” wingspan is especially small for a big man, similar to players like David Lee and Tyler Hansbrough, who really struggled defensively. Collins can’t play center in the NBA and could be a defensive liability even at the four.
Jordan Bell
Bell has a seven-foot wingspan and an 8'8” reach with a body very similar to those of Draymond Green and Paul Millsap. It’s precisely that body type along with his athleticism and shot-blocking ability that make many see him as a huge defensive sleeper and a possible Draymond-lite. Bell isn’t big enough to be a full-time center, so he’ll need to find some offensive role at the four and maybe contribute occasional small-ball five minutes.
Bam Adebayo and Harry Giles
Adebayo and Giles are on the small end for modern centers with 7'3” wingspans and a reach just over nine feet. Both will need to rely on their athleticism as possible rim runners.
Brandon Anderson covers NBA, NFL, sports, TV, and pop culture. Contributor for The Cauldron, Sports Pickle, Arc Digital, Howler. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando and find his writing archives here.
